Umbiko Wemakethe Yansuku Zonke 2026.2.4

Ngokusho kolwazi lwakamuva lwemakethe, ukuguquguquka kwentengo yethusi kwamanje kuthonywa kakhulu yizici ezinkulu ezilandelayo:

1. Izinguquko ekulindelweni kwenqubomgomo yezimali yase-US

Ukuqokwa kukaTrump kukaWalsh njengoSihlalo weFed: Kuvusa amathemba emakethe, idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali yase-US PPI ikhuphuka ngokungazelelwe, idola libuyela esimweni salo ngokushesha futhi linomthelela omubi emananini ethusi.

2 Ukunyakaza kweinkomba yedola

Idola elibuthakathaka linikeze ukwesekwa okuqinile kwentengo yethusi, kodwa inkomba yedola ibonise izimpawu zokubuyela emuva muva nje. Usongo lukaTrump lokuphakamisa izinga lentela laseNingizimu Korea lisuka ku-15% liye ku-25%, kanye nethuba elingu-80% lokuvalwa kukahulumeni wase-US, kuye kwacindezela ukungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo yase-US futhi kwanciphisa idola.

3 Izingozi ze-geopolitical

Ukungaqiniseki okubangelwe yizenzo ze-geopolitical zase-US e-Iran naseVenezuela, kanye nesiteleka saseChile esivimbele ukufinyelela ezimayini ezimbili zethusi, kunomthelela oqondile ekukhiqizweni kwethusi. Lezi zici ze-geopolitical ziye zajulisa inani lemakethe lezingozi zokutholakala kwethusi.

4. Imiphumela yenqubomgomo yezohwebo

Ukukhathazeka ngentela yase-US kuyaqhubeka nokuba nomthelela omubi emananini ethusi. Umthelela wenqubomgomo yase-US wokuphoqelela intela engu-10% ezintweni ezithunyelwa eShayina ngo-2025 usaqhubeka, futhi ukukhathazeka kwemakethe ngengozi yempi yezohwebo kuye kwanda ngezikhathi ezithile.

5. Iisimo somnotho womhlaba wonke

Isimo sezezimali somhlaba wonke sihamba ngendlela evumelana kakhulu. Ngenxa yalesi simo, izimakethe ezinkulu zamasheya zomhlaba wonke zikhuphukile, kanti nezimakethe zezimpahla nazo zibone ukunyuka okuvamile. Kodwa njengoba i-PMI yokukhiqiza ikhuphuka cishe ibe ngu-50%, i-ECB akulindelekile ukuthi ikhiphe isinqumo sokukhulisa amazinga enzalo ngo-2026.

6. Ukuxhumana kwemakethe yezinsimbi eziyigugu

Izimfanelo zezimali zethusi ziye zanda futhi muva nje, futhi izinsimbi eziyigugu zibangela ukuphazamiseka okukhulu emananini ethusi. Njengoba zidonswa ukwehla okusheshayo kwentengo yegolide nesiliva, intengo yethusi iyehla ngesivinini esikhulu.

I-Copper okwamanje isesigabeni lapho izici ezinkulu kanye nezisekelo zishintshashintsha futhi zishintshashintsha, futhi umuzwa wemakethe uyashintshashintsha. Kunconywa ukuthi kuqashelwe ngokucophelela isiqondiso senqubomgomo ye-Federal Reserve, ukunyakaza kwe-US dollar index, kanye nezinguquko ezingozini ze-geopolitical.

Ngokusekelwe olwazini lwakamuva lwemakethe, ngenza ukuhlaziywa okulandelayo kanye nokubikezela kwentengo yethusi ezinyangeni ezintathu ezizayo:

Isimo samanje semakethe yamanani ethusi

Ngokusho kwedatha ye-SMM, intengo emaphakathi yethusi elingu-1# ngoFebhuwari 3, 2026 yayingu-101,320 yuan ngethani, ukwehla kusuka ku-104,410 yuan ngethani. Ngokomlando, amanani ethusi abonise ukwenyuka okucacile phakathi kukaNovemba 2025 noJanuwari 2026, ekhuphuka kusuka ku-86,840 yuan ngethani kuya ku-104,410 yuan ngethani.

Isibikezelo sezinyanga ezintathu ezizayo:

eyodwaIkota Yokuqala (uFebhuwari - uMashi): Isikhathi sokulungisa esiguquguqukayo

Intengo elindelekile: 98,000-103,000 yuan/ton

Intengo yethusi yamanje isesigabeni sokulungiswa okuphezulu, ikakhulukazi ithinteka yizici ezilandelayo:

1) Ukungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo ye-Macro: Ukuqokwa kukaTrump kukaWalsh njengoSihlalo we-Fed kuphakamise amathemba ama-hawk, futhi ukubuya kwe-dollar index kubeke ingcindezi emananini ethusi

A. Ingcindezi ohlangothini lwesidingo: Izinga lokusebenza kwekhebula lethusi lehle laya ku-68.89% ngoDisemba, amanani aphezulu ethusi anciphisa ukukhishwa kwesidingo esingezansi

B. Ukwehlukahluka kwesakhiwo sempahla: Izinto ezikhona e-US ziyaqhubeka nokukhula, kuyilapho izinto ezikhona ezindaweni ezingezona ezase-US zincane kakhulu

ezimbiliEkuqaleni kwekota yesibili (uMbasa): Isikhathi sokuzinza kanye nokululama

Intengo elindelekile: 102,000-108,000 yuan/ton

Njengoba izici ezilandelayo ezinhle zivela kancane kancane:

1) Ukusekelwa kohlangothi lokuphakelwa: IKhomishini Kazwelonke Yethusi yaseChile inyusa isibikezelo sentengo yethusi sango-2026 saya ku-$4.95 ngephawundi (cishe u-$10,900 ngethani)

2) Izingozi zezombusazwe: Isiteleka eChile sivimbele ukufinyelela ezimayini ezimbili zethusi, okuthe ngqo ekukhiqizweni kwethusi

3) Isidingo sokuguquka kwamandla: Indima ebalulekile yeCopper ezikhungweni zedatha ze-AI kanye nokuguquka kwamandla ahlanzekile kuyaqhubeka nokuvelela

Ukuhlaziywa kwezici ezibalulekile ezithonya:

eyodwaIzici zokukhula

1. Ukuqina kokunikezwa kwesakhiwo: I-Goldman Sachs inyusa isibikezelo sayo sentengo yethusi engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026 saya ku-$12,750 ngethani, ishoda ngeprimiyamu ngenxa yokuntuleka kwezinto ezikhona ngaphandle kwe-United States.

2. Ukulindela idola elibuthakathaka: Naphezu kokubuyela emuva kwesikhathi esifushane, umkhuba wesikhathi eside wedola elibuthakathaka usasekela amanani ethusi

3. Ukwehla okuphindwe kabili kwempahla ekhona: Amarisidi okulahlekelwa yithusi le-LME abuyele ku-37%, ukuncipha okwengeziwe kungenzeka uma zonke izinto ezikhona zihoxiswa.

ezimbiliIzici ze-bearish

1. Amanani aphezulu anciphisa isidingo: Ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwamanani ethusi kuye kwehlisa kakhulu isidingo, futhi izinkampani ziyaqaphela kakhulu ekuthengeni kwazo

2. Ukuqinisa izinqubomgomo ezinkulu: Ukwenelisa okulindelwe yi-hawkish kanye nokungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo yezohwebo

3. Izimali eziqagelayo zithola inzuzo: Abanye abatshalizimali bakhetha ukuvalelisa ngemuva kokuba amanani ethusi ephezulu

Isexwayiso Sengozi:

Amanani ethusi azobhekana nezingozi ezilandelayo ezinyangeni ezintathu ezizayo:

- Isikhathi esiqondile kanye nokuqina kwenqubomgomo yentela yase-US

- Ijubane lokushintsha kwenqubomgomo yezimali kwezomnotho ezinkulu zomhlaba

- Umthelela wangempela wezingxabano zezwe kwezepolitiki ezinkambisweni zokuhlinzeka

Ukwahlulela okuphelele: Amanani ethusi azobonisa ukuthambekela kokwehla kokuqala bese ekhuphuka ezinyangeni ezintathu ezizayo, ngesikhala esincane sokudonswa kwemali yesikhashana, futhi asalokhu enesisekelo esikhuphukayo esisekelwa yizisekelo zokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo esikhathini esimaphakathi neside. Abatshalizimali bayelulekwa ukuthi baqaphele izinguquko ezinqolobaneni, izitayela zenqubomgomo ezinkulu kanye nokubuyiselwa kwesidingo esingezansi.